Past and Future CO2 – Reconstructing atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

by Gavin Foster, Dana Royer and Dan Lunt

Figure 1: Compilation of available CO2 data for the last 450 million years. For data sources see text. Proxy records are colour coded and labelled in the relevant panel. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP – Representative Concentration Pathways) used in IPCC AR5 are shown in the right hand panel. Note the variable log scale for time. For the geological data a smoothed line has been fit to the data with an uncertainty accounting for uncertainty in age and CO2. The black line describes the most probable long-term CO2 with 68% confidence limits in red, and 95% confidence in pink.

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the Earth’s atmosphere is a potent greenhouse gas, responsible for trapping longwave radiation and ensuring the habitability of our planet. Variations in its concentration are thought to be important for controlling the evolution of the Earth’s climate on geological timescales (hundreds of thousands to millions of years) and recent anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO₂ have played a major role in more recent global warming.  Read more here.

Reconstructing atmospheric CO₂ in the past is a tricky business.  For the last 800 thousand years we have bubbles of ancient atmosphere trapped in ice that can be recovered from Antarctica.  Prior to this time we have to rely on more indirect methods also known as proxies.  Those available to us are discussed in detail in the latest IPCC report, and in particular in Table 5.A.2 in Chapter 5 “Information from Paleoclimate Archives”  and more briefly here.

In the Figure 1, we have plotted all the available pre-ice core CO₂ reconstructions for the last 423 million years (a total of nearly 800 data points) and compared them to more recent records and projections for the future.  The palaeo-CO₂ data can be found here, the ice core data here  & here , historical data here and the projections of CO₂ for the future here.

For the ancient CO₂ data there is an increased variability due to the existence of both real short term variability (e.g. orbitally driven change like the well-known glacial-interglacial cycles) and increased noise due to the uncertainty in CO₂ reconstructed by these more indirect methods.  To account for this and to better reveal the long-term trends in the CO₂ data we have fitted a smoothed curve, which has an uncertainty due to the uncertainty on the age and CO₂ of each data point.  This smoothed curve can be found here (Phanerozoic-CO2).  This treatment reveals a number of interesting features:

• Despite considerable variability, there has been a gradual long term decline in CO2 over the last 450 million years or so. On average this is around 13 ppm (parts per million) per million years.
• Values similar to today (398.03 ppm for Feb 2014) were last seen during short intervals in the Pliocene some 3 to 5 million years ago, but the last time long-term mean CO2 was at this level was in the middle Miocene climatic optimum (~16 million years ago; see this blog piece by Paul Pearson for more discussion).
• For much of the rest of the last 450 million years or so Earth generally had higher CO2 than today (with the exception of the Carboniferous-Permian ~300 million years ago where CO2 was once again similar to today).
• Business as usual emission scenarios (RCP8.5 on the figures) indicate atmospheric CO2 will reach around 1000 ppm by around 2110 AD (less than 100 years’ time).  The last time CO2 was this high was during the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO)– the warmest time period of the last 50 million years.  The planet was so warm during the period that it was completely ice free (sea-level +65 m or so relative to today) and the latest compilations put global temperatures +13 ± 2.6 ^oC warmer than today (Cabellero and Huber, 2013).  It is important to note though that around 5 ^oC of this warming was due to changes in continental configuration, vegetation and the loss of the continental ice sheets.
• Business as usual emission scenarios (RCP8.5) indicate atmospheric CO2 will reach around 2000 ppm by around 2250 AD.  The last time long-term CO2 was at this level was 200 million years ago at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary when CO2 was elevated by the massive outpourings of lava (covering an area of 11 million km²) as the supercontinent Pangaea broke apart and the Southern Atlantic opened for the first time, Read more here.

Figure 2: Climate forcing by changing CO2 and solar output for the last 450 million years. CO2 data and projections are as outlined in Figure 1. Changing solar output calculated as described in Gough et al. (1981; Solar Physics, 74, 21-34) with CO2 forcing from Byrne and Goldblatt (2014; doi: 10.1002/2013GL058456). The red band is the 95% confidence interval around the smoothed line through the published CO2 data.

However, the evolution of climate over this time period is not only being forced by changing CO2.  As well as tectonics changing the position of the continents, and changes in vegetation and ice changing Earth’s albedo (its reflectiveness) through time (http://www.scotese.com/), models of stellar evolution predict that the output of our Sun has increased over its life time.  On relatively short geological timescales (e.g. the last 5 million years or so) this effect is not significant.  But over 400 million years the output of the sun has increased by around 4% (equivalent to ~12 W m-2 of climate forcing).  We calculated the climate forcing by CO2 (in W m-2) and the Sun for the last 400 million years (using doi: 10.1002/2013GL058456; see Figure 2).

What is revealed is that despite a dramatic change in solar output, the combined climate forcing by CO2 and the Sun has remained relatively constant (Figure 2).  This has been commented on before (here) and is likely due to the operation of a strong negative feedback process changing CO2 levels on geological timescales as a function of global temperature (silicate weathering – more here). However we see that with the latest treatment of the proxy data forcing has remained even more tightly constrained (within ± 5 W m-2) over the last 400 million years (Figure 2).  Given this longer term view of climate forcing, the scenarios for future fossil fuel use stand out as being even more extreme, and the business as usual scenario (RCP8.5) would amount to a climate forcing by CO2 that is largely unprecedented in the geological record (as far as we can tell).

Members of the Descent into the Icehouse project are working to improve our estimates of CO2 during the EECO.  It is important to note that winding the clock back to EECO CO2 levels in the coming century will not result in a simple return to the Eocene climate.  Understanding what drove the evolution of the Eocene climate however will aid our wider understanding of the Earth’s climate system and how it behaves in warm climate states.

When was CO2 last at 400 ppm? And what was the climate like?

Responses of the Emiliania huxleyi Proteome to Ocean Acidification

A new  study, published in PLOS ONE  thie month investigates how a strain of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi might respond if all fossil fuels are burned by the year 2100 – predicted to drive up atmospheric CO₂ levels to over four times the present day. Specimens grown under this high CO₂ scenario were compared with specimens grown under present day CO₂ levels.

Below,  the press release published at the NOCS website.

Press Release: Marine algae show resilience to carbon dioxide emissions

A type of marine algae could become bigger as increasing carbon dioxide emissions are absorbed by the oceans, according to research led by scientists based at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (NOCS).

Example of coccoliths derived at the end of the experiment

Coccolithophores are microscopic algae that form the base of marine food chains. They secrete calcite shells which eventually sink to the seafloor and form sediments, drawing down and locking away carbon in rocks. Because of their calcitic shells, some species have been shown to be sensitive to ocean acidification, which occurs when increasing amounts of atmospheric CO₂ are absorbed by the ocean, increasing seawater acidity.

But these findings suggest that not all coccolithophore species respond to ocean acidification in the same way.

“Contrary to many studies, we see that this species of coccolithophore gets bigger and possesses more calcite under worst-case scenario CO₂ levels for the year 2100,” says Dr Bethan Jones, lead author and former researcher at University of Southampton Ocean and Earth Science, which is based at NOCS. “They do not simply dissolve away under high CO₂ and elevated acidity.”

However, the researchers also observed that cells grew more slowly under the high CO₂ scenario, which could be a sign of stress.

The researchers also tested for changes in protein abundance – using a technique developed by the collaborating institutes – as well as other biochemical characteristics. They detected very few differences between the two scenarios, indicating that apart from growth, this strain of coccolithophore does not seem to be particularly affected by ocean acidification.

Co-author Professor Iglesias-Rodriguez, formerly at University of Southampton Ocean and Earth Science, says: “This study suggests that this strain of Emiliania huxleyi possesses some resilience to tolerate future CO₂ scenarios, although the observed decline in growth rate may be an overriding factor affecting the success of this ecotype in future oceans. This is because if other species are able to grow faster under high CO₂, they may ‘outgrow’ this type of coccolithophore.

“Given that chalk production by calcifiers is the largest carbon reservoir on Earth – locking away atmospheric CO₂ in ocean sediments – understanding how coccolithophores respond to climate change is a first step in developing models to predict their fate under climate pressure such as ocean acidification.”

The team used a technique called ‘shotgun proteomics’, optimised for marine microbiological research at the University of Southampton’s Centre for Proteomic Research, to detect changes in proteins under the different CO₂ scenarios.

The collaborative study involved researchers at University of Southampton Ocean and Earth Science (which is based at NOCS), University of Southampton Institute for Life Sciences, University of Southampton Centre for Proteomic Research, University of Cambridge, University College London and Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, China.

Carbon Dioxide the Dominant Control on Global Temperature and Sea Level Over the Last 40 Million Years

The study “Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO₂ on geological timescales” by Dr Gavin Foster and Professor Eelco Rohling,  published in the  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences  last month had quite an impact on the science websites and blogs.

In his Skeptical Science blogpost, Rob Painting discusses the key points of the study which has engaged scientists in a constructive debate in the comments section.

Key Points:

• Because the water contained in land-based ice sheets is ultimately derived from the ocean, over long (geological) timescales global sea level is largely determined by global temperature and, consequently, the temperature-dependent volume of ice stored on land.

• Since the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (The Greenhouse Effect) exerts such a powerful influence on global and polar temperature, it therefore follows that it should also exhibit a strong relationship with global sea level over geologic intervals of time.

• Foster & Rohling (2013) examined time slices of paleo data covering the last 40 million years to uncover the details of this carbon dioxide-sea level relationship. Surprisingly, they found a consistent and robust relationship between carbon dioxide and sea level irrespective of other contributing factors.

• Based on the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as of 2011, the authors estimated that future sea level is committed to rise 24 metres (+7/-15 m) above present-day once the land-based ice sheets have fully responded to the warming and the Earth is once more in equilibrium.

• The authors estimated that this sea level rise will likely take place over many centuries, if not several thousand years, but it nevertheless represents the long-term consequences of human industrial activity, and is further evidence that CO₂ is the Earth’s “main control knob” for global temperature.

Continue reading here

Off balance: the CO2 and sea level seesaw – An interview with Dr Gavin Foster

 The study “Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO₂ on geological timescales” by Dr Gavin Foster and Professor Eelco Rohling which was this week published in the  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences  had quite an impact on the science websites and blogs.

In an interview in Katy Edgington (ScienceOmega.com), Gavin “expounded on the link between CO₂ and the seas, and how the correlation exhibited in this study could influence our forecasts for the future.”

While sea level change is arguably one of the most long-lasting and significant impacts of anthropogenic climate change, long-range predictions of the change that can be expected as the oceans warm and the continental ice sheets melt are quite uncertain.

“This is largely because the complex processes involved in the melting of the continental ice sheets are difficult to incorporate into climate models,” Dr Foster pointed out. “We currently rely on semi-empirical methods to describe their behaviour; methods which remain as yet untested.”

@ Matthew Humphreys

Dr Foster and his colleagues approached the problem in a slightly different way, by delving into the rich archive of the geological past to find examples of warmer worlds that could provide an insight into how the Earth may behave in a warmer future. Focusing on the relatively recent past – the last 40 million years – they minimised the impact of changes in continental configuration, for example.

“The main advantage of looking at the geological past, and what makes it worthwhile, is that it represents a reality – a state which we can be sure the Earth system once occupied,” explained Dr Foster. “It inherently includes all feedbacks involved in the system whether we currently know about them or not; this is not the case with modelling, of course, which draws directly on the state of our current knowledge.”

The inclusion of data from points at which the global temperature was increasing and decreasing allowed Dr Foster and co-author Professor Eelco Rohling – also from Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton – the best chance of spotting trends and relationships.

“As many people are aware, CO₂ is a potent greenhouse gas responsible for a significant portion of the greenhouse effect,” stated Dr Foster. “On geological timescales, the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is determined by subtle imbalances in the amount of CO₂ coming out of volcanoes and the amount being removed by silicate weathering.”

Over the last 40 million years CO₂ concentration has changed quite dramatically, from 1200 parts per million (ppm) 40 million years ago to 180 ppm during the last glacial maximum.

“We show here that ice volume and sea level, and hence global temperature, have changed in concert,” stated Dr Foster. “Correlation does not prove causation of course, but we have known from fundamental physics for over 100 years that if you change atmospheric CO₂ concentration you change global temperature by ~1ºC per doubling. This basic response is amplified by other processes that operate in the atmosphere and the result is something like a 2–5ºC global temperature change for a doubling of CO₂.”

New study documents the natural relationship between CO2 concentrations and sea level

National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (UK)

By comparing reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and sea level over the past 40 million years, researchers based at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton have found that greenhouse gas concentrations similar to the present (almost 400 parts per million) were systematically associated with sea levels at least nine metres above current levels.

The study determined the ‘natural equilibrium’ sea level for CO2 concentrations ranging between ice-age values of 180 parts per million and ice-free values of more than 1,000 parts per million.

It takes many centuries for such an equilibrium to be reached, therefore whilst the study does not predict any sea level value for the coming century, it does illustrate what sea level might be expected if climate were stabilized at a certain CO2 level for several centuries.

Lead author Dr Gavin Foster, from Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton which is based at the centre, said, “A specific case of interest is one in which CO2 levels are kept at 400 to 450 parts per million, because that is the requirement for the often mentioned target of a maximum of two degrees global warming.”

 The researchers compiled more than two thousand pairs of CO2 and sea level data points, spanning critical periods within the last 40 million years. Some of these had climates warmer than present, some similar, and some colder. They also included periods during which global temperatures were increasing, as well as periods during which temperatures were decreasing.

“This way, we cover a wide variety of climate states, which puts us in the best position to detect systematic relationships and to have the potential for looking at future climate developments,” said co-author Professor Eelco Rohling, also from Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton.

The researchers found that the natural relationship displays a strong rise in sea level for CO2 increase from 180 to 400 parts per million, peaking at CO2 levels close to present-day values, with sea level at 24 +7/-15 metres above the present, at 68 per cent confidence limits.

“This strong relationship reflects the climatic sensitivity of the great ice sheets of the ice ages,” said Dr Foster. “It continues above the present level because of the apparently similar sensitivity of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, plus possibly some coastal parts of East Antarctica.”

According to the study, sea level stays more or less constant for CO2 changes between 400 and 650 parts per million and it is only for CO2 levels above 650 parts per million that the researchers again saw a strong sea level response for a given CO2 change.

“This trend reflects the behaviour of the large East Antarctic ice sheet in response to climate changes at these very high CO2 levels. An ice-free planet, with sea level 65 metres above the present, occurred in the past when CO2 levels were around 1200 parts per million.”

Professor Rohling said, “Sea level rises to these high values will take many centuries, or even millennia, but the implications from the geological record are clear – for a future climate with maximum warming of about two degrees Centigrade, that is with CO2 stabilized at 400 to 450 parts per million, sea level is set to steadily rise for many centuries, towards its natural equilibrium position at around 24 +7/-15 metres, at 68 per cent confidence. In Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terms, this is a likely rise of at least nine metres above the present. Previous research indicates that such rises above present sea level may occur at rates of roughly one metre per century.”

Based on these results, which document how the Earth system has operated in the past, future stabilization of CO2 at 400-450 parts per million is unlikely to be sufficient to avoid a significant steady long-term sea level rise.

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 The study “Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO₂ on geological timescales” is published this week online ahead of print in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

CO2 and climate closely linked during the middle Miocene (11 to 17 million years ago)

by Gavin Foster, Carrie Lear and James Rae

The Miocene epoch spans a relatively long period of Earth’s history from 5 million to 23 million years ago.  It contains the middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (from around 17 to 15 million years ago, also known as the MCO for short) – a period of global warmth (perhaps as much as 4-5 ^oC warmer than today) punctuating the overall cooling trend that has characterised the last 50 million years.  Notably, the MCO is associated with (amongst other things) a smaller than modern Antarctic Ice Sheet.    This is therefore a very useful period to study as it may serve as an analogue for our warm future, or at the very least, as a vital guide to how the Earth system functions when it’s warmer than today.

 The most obvious driver of warmth during the MCO would be higher CO₂ than the pre-industrial period (i.e. >280 ppm).  However, much of the available proxy information does not support this and the middle Miocene is thought to be a time period when other factors control climate independent of CO₂ – such as ocean circulation and mountain uplift.  In a recent paper, by Gavin Foster, Carrie Lear and James Rae  published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters , a new boron isotope-based CO₂ record is presented that, in contrast to this long standing view, shows a remarkable agreement with indicators of the thermal state of the Earth System during the middle Miocene, for instance, the oxygen isotopic composition of benthic foraminifera (which reflect ice volume and bottom water temperature) and the state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (Figure 1).  When the temperature component of the oxygen isotope record is isolated and corrected for, the record of ice volume (the amount of ice stored on land) generated appears tightly correlated to CO₂ (see Figures 1 & 2).  This suggests that CO₂ is driving the climate system during the middle Miocene and the climate system and the cryosphere are responding in a relatively linear fashion to CO₂ forcing – e.g. when CO₂ goes up the climate warms and the ice sheets melt and vice versa.

 Whilst this observation provides further support for the importance of CO₂in driving natural climate change, it does leave us with a couple of conundrums.  Firstly, it is known from a number of sources that the Antarctic was much warmer during the MCO (e.g., see  My oh Miocene!)  and the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) retreated behind the current ice margin at this time.  Our new data suggests that it did this at a similar level of CO₂ (~350-400 ppm) to that associated with its regrowth at the end of the MCO (Figure 1).  According to ice sheet models this shouldn’t happen, because the AIS is so cold, bright and elevated, that a higher CO₂ (and hence more warmth) is required to melt it than is required to form it in the first place (a process known as hysteresis).   The answer to this conundrum is that it is likely some portion of the AIS is more mobile than the models are able to simulate (e.g. those portions, such as the Aurora subglacial basin, currently below sea-level, see http://www.antarctica.ac.uk//bas_research/data/access/bedmap/examples/bed10.gif).  This of course has potentially worrying consequences for our future as we approach Miocene-like CO₂ levels in the coming years. Because ice sheets are inherently sluggish, it will take many 100s of years for the AIS to reach equilibrium with modern CO₂ levels, but when it does we may also experience Miocene-like sea-levels (>20 m higher than present).

 Secondly, even after the MCO, when our new record suggests CO₂ dropped to lower than pre-industrial values (280 ppm; Figure 1), the Miocene is thought to be significantly warmer than the pre-industrial.  In particular, several studies (including this recent one in Nature) indicate that climate cooled from the Late Miocene  to the Pliocene (11 to 2.5 million years ago) – and if CO₂ is already at low values, what is driving this cooling?  Unfortunately CO₂ records for the Late Miocene to Pliocene are sparse so we are not currently able to identify exactly what CO₂ is doing during this period.  This means it is still possible that CO₂ and climate are decoupled for part of the Miocene.  However we are in the process of generating some new boron based CO₂ records for this crucial period so we may know the answer in the coming months – so watch this space!

FIGURES

CAPTION FIGURE 1. (a) Middle Miocene pCO₂ (Foster et al., 2012), (b) benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O at ODP 761 (Lear et al., 2010) – this parameter reflects both the temperature of the deep water the foraminifera grew in and the amount of ice on land (ice volume), (c) δ¹⁸O of seawater (δ¹⁸O_sw) reconstructed at ODP 761 (Lear et al., 2010) – this parameter is just ice-volume. (d)  schematic summary of shore based reconstructions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the length of the black bands incorporating both dating uncertainties and the likely duration of events (Sugden and Denton, 2004; Rocchi et al., 2006; Lewis et al., 2006; Lewis et al., 2007; Lewis et al., 2008), (e) AIS size based on heavy mineral assemblage in the AND-2A drill hole, Ross Sea (Hauptvogel and Passhier, 2012), (f) accumulation rate of debris delivered to the North Atlantic by ice bergs (ice rafted debris; IRD) >0.5 mm in size (from Winkler et al., 2002) and (g) schematic Antarctic glacial history based on the results from the AND-2A drill hole, Ross Sea (Passchier et al., 2011).  For (a) symbols are as for Figure 8 and for (b) and (c) symbols are as for Figure 5.  Also shown in (g) is the average accumulation rate of IRD >0.5 mm (g/cm²/ka) at ODP Site 909 during the last 1 million years (0.13 g/cm²/ka).  In (g) the white fill denotes time periods of expanded, cold-based AIS with advance beyond the modern grounding line beginning at ~14.7 Ma (black line) coincident with the start of the MMCT.  Periods of polythermal conditions and a reduced AIS compared to the modern are shown as light grey and periods of significant retreat as dark grey (modified from Passchier et al., 2011).

CAPTION FIGURE 2. . The relationship between δ¹⁸O_sw (which represents the amount of ice stored on land – ice volume) and climate forcing (δF_CO2 = 5.35 * ln[CO₂/278] W/m²) by pCO₂.  In each plot data from ODP 761 is shown as filled blue diamonds and ODP 926 as open blue triangles.  Error bars are the sum of the analytical uncertainty in d¹¹B, the uncertainty in TA and sea surface temperature (see text).  Uncertainty in δ¹⁸O_sw is related to the two estimates made by Lear et al. (2010; with and without taking into account the effect of ΔCO₃⁼ on Mg/Ca temperature).

REFERENCES:

Hauptvogel, D.W., Passchier, S., 2012. Early-Middle Miocene (17-14 Ma) Antarctic ice dynamics reconstructed from the heavy mineral provenance in the AND-2A drill core, Ross Sea, Antarctica. Global and Planetary Change 82-83, 38-50.

Lear, C.H., Mawbey, E.M., Rosenthal, Y., 2010. Cenozoic benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and Li/Ca records: Toward unlocking temperatures and saturation states. Paleoceanography, doi:10.1029/2009PA001880.

Lewis, A.R., Marchant, D.R., Ashworth, A.C., Hedenas, L., Hemming, S.R., Johnson, J.V., Leng, M.J., Machlus, M.L., Newton, A.E., Raine, J.I., Willenbring, J.K., Williams, M., Wolfe, A.P., 2008. Mid-Miocene cooling and the extinction of tundra in continental Antarctica. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 105, 10676-10680.

Lewis, A.R., Marchant, D.R., Ashworth, A.C., Hemming, S.R., Machlus, M.L., 2007. Major middle Miocene global climate change: Evidence from East Antarctica and the Transantarctic Mountains. Geological Society of America Bulletin 119, 1449-1461.

Lewis, A.R., Marchant, D.R., Kowalewski, D.E., Baldwin, S.L., Webb, L.E., 2006. The age and origin of the Labyrinth, western Dry Valleys, Antarctica: Evidence for extensive middle Miocene subglacial floods and freshwater discharge to the Southern Ocean. Geology 34, 513-516.

Passchier, S., Browne, G., Field, B., Fielding, C.R., Krissek, L.A., Panter, K.S., Pekar, S.F., Team, A.-S.S., 2011. Early and middle Miocene Antarctic glacial history from the sedimentary facies distribution in the AND-2A drill hole, Ross Sea, Antarctica. Geological Society of America Bulletin 123, 2352-2365.

Rocchi, S., LeMasurier, W.E., Di Vincenzo, G., 2006. Oligocene to Holocene erosion and glacial history in Marie Byrd Land, West Antarctica, inferred from exhumation of the Dorrel Rock intrustive complex and from volcano morphologies. Geological Society of America Bulletin 118, 991-1005.

Sugden, D., Denton, G., 2004. Cenozoic landscape evolution of the Convoy Range to Mackay Glacier area, Transantarctic Mountains: Onshore to offshore synthesis. Geological Society of America Bulletin 116, 840-857.

Winkler, A., Wolf-Welling, T.C.W., Stattegger, K., Thiede, J., 2002. Clay mineral sedimentation in high northern latitude deep-sea basins since the Middle Miocene (ODP Leg 151, NAAG). Internation Journal of Earth Sciences 91, 133-148.